The AIReF confirms that the GDP growth estimates for 2027 from the Community of Madrid (2.3%) and Galicia (1.9%) align with its own forecasts and fall within the range of other independent organizations. Both communities have complied with the recommendations to submit macroeconomic information and endorsement requests prior to the publication of their budget projects.
The fiscal body emphasizes that macroeconomic forecasts for autonomous communities are prepared in a context of high uncertainty, influenced by the geopolitical environment. The AIReF recalls that the latest official figures from Spain's Regional Accounting are for 2025, although they may be revised. The high uncertainty complicates budgetary planning and may affect compliance with national and European fiscal rules in a decentralized system.
In the case of Madrid, the 2.3% growth forecast for 2027 is considered in line with the AIReF's central projection. The community has adhered to good practices by including comparisons with other forecasts, detailing the econometric techniques and assumptions used, and providing medium-term projections, although the need to include employment estimates in terms of occupied persons is reiterated.
For its part, Galicia's 1.9% forecast for 2027, while lower than the AIReF's, falls within its central range. The Galician community has also complied with the recommendations for information submission, comparisons, and technical details, in addition to including projections beyond the budgetary year and providing data on the GDP deflator path.
