The survey, published coinciding with the celebration of Dos de Mayo, projects that the PP would secure between 68 and 69 deputies, reaching the threshold for an absolute majority, which is set at 68 seats. This outcome represents a slight decrease compared to the 70 deputies and 47.3 percent of votes obtained in the May 2023 elections, with the current estimate at 46.7 percent.
Within the left-wing bloc, the PSOE would experience a significant advance, increasing from 27 to 29 deputies and consolidating its position as the second political force in the region. This growth would imply a 'sorpasso' over Más Madrid, which was the most voted left-wing formation in the capital in 2023. The PSOE would exceed 20 percent of support, while Más Madrid would fall to between 24 and 25 deputies, with a 16.9 percent vote estimate.
Meanwhile, Vox would also improve its results, moving from 11 to an estimated 13 to 14 seats. Its vote percentage would grow from 7.4 percent recorded in 2023 to 9.5 percent, strengthening its presence in the Madrid Assembly. In contrast, Podemos would continue to lose support and would be left out of the regional Chamber, with an estimated 4.2 percent of the votes, insufficient to gain parliamentary representation.
Regarding the evaluation of Madrid's leaders, the president of the Community of Madrid is the only leader to pass, with an average score of 5. She is followed by the spokesperson for Más Madrid, with a 3.4; the general secretary of the PSOE, with a 3.1; and the spokesperson for Vox, with a 3.




